JPMorgan Chase has raised its outlook for the US economy following a temporary trade deal between the US and China. The bank no longer expects the world’s largest economy to fall into a recession in 2025, while also projecting a higher 4.8% pace of growth for China.According to JPMorgan’s Chief US Economist Michael Feroli, the …
JPMorgan revises US economic growth forecast after US-China trade deal – The Financial Express

JPMorgan Chase has raised its outlook for the US economy following a temporary trade deal between the US and China. The bank no longer expects the world’s largest economy to fall into a recession in 2025, while also projecting a higher 4.8% pace of growth for China.
According to JPMorgan’s Chief US Economist Michael Feroli, the government’s recent move to ease some of the tougher tariffs on China has helped lower the chances of a recession, a Bloomberg report said. While the risk of an economic slowdown is still present, it is now considered to be less than 50%, Feroli said.
Feroli mentioned that the bank now expects the US economy to grow by 0.6% in 2025, up from the earlier prediction of 0.2%. The bank also revised its inflation forecast, expecting a key measure of inflation, based on personal consumption expenditures (excluding food and energy), to rise by 3.5% instead of 4%.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs and other major banks have raised their growth forecasts for China’s economy, thanks to a temporary agreement with the US to reduce trade tensions. ING raised its forecast to 4.7%, with the possibility of a further increase if a deal is reached soon.
Goldman Sachs now predicts China’s economy will grow by 4.6% in 2025, up from the previous estimate of 4%. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, led by Andrew Tilton, shared this update with their clients on Tuesday.
According to Lynn Song, ING’s China chief economist, this de-escalation was bigger than expected, but negotiations will still be tough.
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